Decoding The Enigma

Islam Zween, Argaam CEO

By Islam Zween

The codebreakers were not just unravelling a tapestry of encrypted messages but grappling with the ever-shifting sands of the Enigma code that the Germans wielded like a weapon. Each day brought with it not just the challenge of uncovering existing patterns but the exhilarating unpredictability of anticipating fresh alterations in the code's complexities, elements that could change with the dawn of a new day.

This resilience and relentless pursuit of meeting a challenge stood out as one of the most memorable scenes in the acclaimed American film The Imitation Game, capturing the intense pressure the team faced as they raced against time to decipher messages that felt as elusive as shadows.

Fast forward to 2025, and a similar veil of unpredictability looms over the global economic landscape, which looks replete with surprises after the election of President Donald Trump. His decisions do send ripples through media and markets alike, making the task of strategic forecasting seem almost never ending, as just when one believes they have achieved clarity, new developments reset the situation.

Just as the codebreakers had to navigate the shifting variables of the Enigma code, today's leaders and strategists should come to terms with the rapid and often unforeseen changes associated with Trump's unique style in governance.

In light of the prevailing unpredictability in today’s world, we must critically assess whether our strategic contingency planning is robust enough to navigate the complexities ahead. The recently released annual report of the 2030 Vision rightly emphasizes the significant achievements and the extensive progress made at different sectors under Vision 2030, which has transformed the kingdom and placed it in a markedly improved position on the global stage.

But have we truly learned from past events? While these impressive achievements are commendable, they also highlight the importance of maintaining a vigilant mindset and ensuring that contingency plans are in place to address any future uncertainties.

Trump’s approach often manifests in sudden shifts in policy or rhetoric that can leave observers trying to "decode" his decisions and strategies continually; thus, fostering a sense of resilience becomes crucial, enabling stakeholders in the kingdom to adapt and respond effectively to the dynamic political landscape the new US administration creates.

Moreover, it is essential to adjust the expectations and goals of Vision 2030. Such adjustments would ensure that the strategy remains relevant and aligned with external political developments, allowing for a more resilient approach to achieving the kingdom's long-term objectives.

Resilience is defined as the ability of a disrupted system to return to the pre-disruption state. In project management and strategic planning, this involves anticipating potential disruptions and developing robust contingency plans to address them effectively.

The high tariffs imposed by the US on various countries, chiefly China which promised it would ‘fight to the end’, lead to a significant shift in global supply chains. For Saudi Arabia, these tariffs would lead sooner or later to increased costs and fluctuating availability of imported materials, a scenario that could directly affect some project timelines.

Contingency planning not only mitigates financial uncertainty but also ensures operational continuity, enabling organizations to adapt swiftly to changing market conditions and sustain their growth trajectory.

As Saudi Arabia gears up for high-profile events like the FIFA World Cup in 2034, the need for an accurate assessment of time contingencies and cost of some materials becomes critical. Traditional risk assessment methods might not fully capture how such geopolitical disruptions influence local projects.

By prioritizing this phase, different sectors – including the energy sector which’s exempted from the sweeping US tariffs - can foster a proactive culture that values preparedness, ultimately enhancing their ability to navigate unforeseen challenges.

We must try hard to ‘decode’ the unpredictable signals in a highly dynamic political and economic global landscape. The journey of resilience requires not only acknowledging past disruptions but also weaving them into the fabric of today’s strategic planning. In an ever-changing context and a world that only accepts the strong and adaptable, resilience remains the smartest language of survival.