Morgan Stanley lowers Brent crude price forecast for H2 2025

Morgan Stanley lowered its forecasts for the Brent crude average price in H2 2025, following OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production increases for the second consecutive month.

In a note, the US bank’s analysts expected the average price of Brent crude to reach $60 per barrel in Q2, down from the previously estimated $65.

They also lowered their forecasts for the average price per barrel in H2 2025 to $57.50, compared to previous estimates of $62.50.

For H1 2026, Morgan Stanley expects Brent to decline further to $55 per barrel, compared to a previous estimate of $65, before rebounding later that year.

The bank also raised its forecast for the oil liquids surplus in H2 2025 to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd), up from a prior estimate of 700,000 bpd.